Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos Face off Space Race
Elon Musk’s SpaceX launched its first 60 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral in Florida last month, and it caused a lot of people to report seeing flying objects that were not planes. Mr. Musk took to Twitter to defend the project from claims that SpaceX was making “space debris” that could make it difficult to see the stars.
“There are already 4,900 satellites in space, which people only notice about 0% of the time.” If you look very closely, you won’t be able to see Starlink, and it won’t have any effect on how far astronomy has come.
The launch was the first step in a project to build a huge network of satellites that could have up to 12,000 satellites.
It is also part of a group of billionaires who want to get into the business. They think that small satellites can help connect the almost 4 billion people who are still not on the internet.
Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, already has a stake in the space race through his Blue Origin rocket company. At the beginning of April, Amazon also announced a plan called Project Kuiper that would allow it to launch its own set of satellites into space.
Other rich people are also looking up. There is a start-up called OneWeb that has raised more than $3bn to build a constellation of 650 satellites. Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank and Richard Branson’s Virgin Group have both given money to this company.
Mike Pence, the vice president of the United States, summed up the mood at a satellite industry conference in Washington last month. This is how Trump said it: “Rich people love rockets.” : “Space is the best train set for boys.”
Two bets: First, the billionaires think there will be huge growth in the satellite industry over the next decade, as the need for communication in places like Africa grows quickly. Second, they think there will be a lot of money in the stock market in the next few years. Second, they think they can get a big chunk of that market with new microsatellites that work at lower orbit levels, which caused the UFO panic.
Even so, there is one big problem for the billionaires who want to get into the satellite business: Many of the biggest companies already in the business are having trouble.
Inmarsat has been sold to a private equity group for less than half of what it was worth three years ago. The private equity group bought the company for less than half of what it was worth three years ago. Inmarsat’s shares fell to a 12-year low. One of the smaller British companies that want to help people in Africa get high-speed internet is Avanti Communications. Last year, the company was forced into a debt for equity deal, which meant it had to raise $55 million this year from the hedge funds that own its debt. It’s been two years since the value of Eutelsat, a French satellite company, dropped by half. The value of Luxembourg-based SES has dropped by a third, as well.
A lot of people think billionaire investors could change the satellite industry after they changed cars, retail, and a lot more things.
Until SpaceX won a contract with Nasa, the U.S. space agency, there were only a few companies in the business. Chad Anderson is the CEO of venture capital firm Space Angels. Since then, more than 435 space companies have received a total of $20bn in investment from investors as satellite start-ups have risen to the top. It has already happened before satellites have even been used, he says.
Mr. Anderson thinks that the space race is moving into a new phase led by Mr. Musk and Mr. Bezos, both of whom own rocket companies, as well as start-up satellite businesses and, are looking for more than basic communications. That could change things for the people who are already in the game.
None of the big satellite telecom companies are really safe, he says. They haven’t been for some time. There are a lot of things that have been passed around from owner to owner like a hot potato, and that is going to happen again.
Many people think that satellite businesses are already crowded and that they have a history of false starts. This is based on how some of the existing businesses have had trouble.
Pearce, the CEO of Inmarsat, says that when new companies come into the field, established companies remember what happened when it went up and down in the early 2000s. “We’ve already seen this movie. It’s a scary movie, he says.
The fact that the trail of light from the Starlink launches could be seen by UFO spotters on the ground shows how the field has changed. In the past, companies used to send huge geostationary satellites the size of a London bus into space to cover large parts of the world that were not covered by traditional telecoms lines. If you want to keep costs down, you can buy smaller satellite models called low earth-orbiting satellites. These satellites are ideal for projects that look at the earth and do research. It’s a project that SpaceX and Amazon are working on.
SpaceX has raised $1bn to pay for the launch, and Mr. Musk has said that Starlink could eventually make $30bn a year in revenue.
Some big names like Coca-Cola and Coca-Cola are investors in OneWeb, which launched its first microsatellites in February. That’s when it raised $1.25 billion to finish its world network by 2021.
With the help of Amazon, they plan to launch more than 3,000 satellites that will be launched at altitudes between 590 and 630 km. The project, which is called the Kuiper Belt, is similar to both SpaceX and OneWeb in that it wants to connect parts of the world that 5G technology and fixed-line broadband won’t be able to reach.
Many people around the world don’t have access to high-speed internet. Many communities that haven’t been served or aren’t well-served need low-latency, high-speed broadband, says the company.
Pearce, the CEO of Inmarsat, says that when new companies come into the field, established players remember what happened when it went up and down in the early 2000s. “We’ve already seen this movie.” He says: “It’s a scary movie,” he says.
The fact that the trail of light from the Starlink launches could be seen by people who look for UFOs shows how the industry has changed. Companies used to launch huge geostationary satellites the size of a London bus into space to cover large parts of the world that weren’t covered by traditional telecoms lines. These satellites were launched into space at high altitudes. There have been a lot of small satellite models, called low earth-orbiting satellites, that have come out in the last decade as a cheaper alternative. They have been great for things like looking at the earth and doing research. SpaceX and Amazon are investing in these small satellites, and they’re going to use them.
SpaceX has raised $1bn to pay for the launch, and Mr. Musk has said that Starlink could make $30bn a year in revenue in the future.
Also in February, OneWeb launched its first microsatellites. It was backed by a number of investors, including SoftBank and Qualcomm, Airbus, and Coca-Cola. It then raised $1.25 billion to finish its global network by 2021, which is planned to do by that time frame.
A new player has joined the space race: Amazon plans to launch more than 3,000 satellites at altitudes between 590 and 630 km. The project, which is called the Kuiper Belt, is similar to both SpaceX and OneWeb in that it wants to connect parts of the world that won’t be able to get 5G or fixed-line broadband.
Many people around the world do not have access to broadband internet. Many communities that haven’t been served or aren’t well-served need low-latency, high-speed broadband, says the company that makes the service.
Companies like France’s Leo sat and Canada’s Telesat is also planning to launch microsatellites. Boeing, which had applied to launch microsatellites, hasn’t been interested anymore.
The new space race to launch swarms of satellites is part of a big rise in space investment. This is why the new space race is so important. According to Northern Sky Research, $17.8 billion was invested in 600 companies from 2000 to 2018. In the last two years, $7 billion of that money was raised.
Yet, the rush to build new constellations has also made people feel like they’ve been there before. At the turn of the century, the satellite industry went into freefall. It lost billions of dollars in investment in the process, and it was very bad for the business. Iridium, which came out of Motorola, spent $6 billion building a satellite network in a bet that the clunky satellite phone would become the world’s favorite way to talk. It released its first phone in 1998. Within a year, it had filed for bankruptcy and was sold for $25 million in 2000.
Globalstar, another US company that had big plans for the world, also went bust. By the time it was sold in 2004, its value had dropped from $7 billion to $55 million because of the tech boom. Real-life took its toll on ICO Global Communications and Orbcomm, too.
As the satellite market has not consolidated, both Iridium and Globalstar have been able to stay alive and compete with Inmarsat, SES, Intelsat, Eutelsat, ViaSat, and the company owned by billionaire Charlie Ergen, EchoStar. EchoStar tried to buy Inmarsat last year, but it didn’t work out.
Those who have been around for a long time have been investing billions of dollars in the sky to get ready for new opportunities as the old profitable business of selling satellite phones, providing connectivity to armies and ships in remote areas, and piping TV content into homes has been pushed back.
In his book, Mr. Anderson says that the high barriers to entry have made the established players feel more confident than they should be about being able to stop new players.
In the past, there have been many people who thought they could do better than they could. ” All of them played the same game. The rules had been set. It has changed, he says.
Companies that have been around awhile have some warnings for new investors based on their history.
During the 1970s, Inmarsat was started by a group of countries who wanted to make the seas safer by using satellites to pick up on distress calls from ships. First, it was the first satellite company in the world to be privatized in the 1990s. It has since grown to become one of the most important players in the industry. Yet, the British company’s recent history has been a good example for the whole field. Its share price has been like an “Alpine range,” says the CEO, Mr. Pearce. A lot of people have bought into the company’s growth potential and then its value went up, but then it went down because of poor performance.
Global Xpress is the name of a new group of satellites Inmarsat decided to buy in 2010. These satellites are called Global Xpress. Inmarsat bought a new fleet of planes that cost the company more than $2 billion. The new planes would open up new opportunities for Inmarsat, like in-flight WiFi in Europe. Asked Mr. Pearce: “We need a bigger boat.”
Global Xpress, or GX, was set up by Inmarsat as a separate company. It was based in Switzerland, a long way from its headquarters on the Old Street roundabout in London, where it worked. It was run by Leo Mondale, a member of the original Iridium team and the nephew of former US vice-president Walter Mondale. He was in charge of the project.
In 2015, a Proton rocket launch at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, where the first Sputnik satellite was launched, didn’t work out. This put a halt to its plans. The launch of GX was put back two years because of the failure. Inmarsat’s old business was starting to suffer. Within two years, the value of the company’s shares dropped from £11 to a third of that value.
Mr. Pearce says that the takeover by Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus is not “an admission of failure,” even though the company had not met its growth goals as a public company. Because going private would “manage risk between now and the land of milk and honey,” he says it would be a good idea to do that.
A lot of big companies aren’t the first to see that launching satellites to help people in Africa and the Middle East connect is a good way to grow. Avanti, a company based in London, has long seen the potential of the continent, which isn’t well-served by fixed broadband connections and 3G and 4G cell networks.
Media firm Avanti began its life by sending ads to small screens at supermarket checkouts. Later, Avanti set its sights on space and became a company that made planes. If you add up all the money, it has raised $1.2 billion to build and launch satellites that send high-speed internet to people in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. During its early days, it had a value of more than $1 billion. It was trying to become a rising star in the field. Eric Clapton bought shares in the company, according to one person who knew about it.
Yet Avanti fell to the ground because the interest costs on its huge debt kept rising and the company didn’t make any money. “It was forced to do a debt for equity swap at the end of last year,” says the New York Times. It has since raised $55 million from existing investors during a tense roadshow in New York for what one analyst called its “last roll of the dice.”
Research firm Megabuyte said that the HYLAS 3 satellite, which will finally launch in July, is coming four years late and eight years after the money was raised to put it in space. This is because Megabuyte looked into how technology works. It was thought that a promise that Avanti would make money this year was “a small reward for the more than $1.2 billion that was put into it.”
The company has a market value of £37 million, but it has a lot of debt and only 20% of its satellites have been used.
It used to be thought that Kyle Whitehill, a former Pepsi and Vodafone executive who now runs Avanti, could get all of the rural broadband business for himself. Whitehill has now changed his mind. It doesn’t matter what the Chelsea-Arsenal score is. African people have already found out.” When he talks about how the company used to be so big, he says that they are now more interested in simple human needs.
This is what Mr. Whitehill says: The satellite industry has never thought about how to make money for the customer. In this case, you get people to give you money, build a satellite, and launch it. Then, you think about the customer. If you compare it to companies that make fixed and mobile phone calls, “it’s backward.”
People were talking about the Amazon launch and whether Avanti’s new microsatellite constellations would kill its business when they were talking about refinancing their business. There were 45 presentations. Mr. Whitehill is still sure that his business is small enough to stay alive and work with bigger companies that want to make a big impression.
Pearce says that the businesses who have invested can live with the big technology companies, like Amazon, that have moved into their heartland. This is also true for the businesses that have invested. In this example, he says, “He won’t change the world in one day.” He says that established players need to be more risk-averse. Life will be harsh and short if you’re afraid and yelling at the table.
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