The question of whether “Oppenheimer” will take home an Oscar on Sunday is not relevant. The question is more about whether director Christopher Nolan will require a Brinks truck or a small red wagon to transport all the golden artifacts home.
With a lead of 13 nominations, Christopher Nolan‘s atomic bomb thriller is a strong contender to win some major silverware at the 96th Academy Awards, which will be broadcast live on ABC at 7 p.m. EDT/4 PDT. This includes winning big-ticket categories like best actor, supporting actor, and picture. If nothing else, the competition for best actress might be intriguing, with Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) taking on Emma Stone, the previous winner (“Poor Things”), for the entire marbles.
Here are our predictions for each of the main categories, while we hope for just enough turmoil to make the evening engaging:
Best Picture
“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “Barbie”
“Oppenheimer” explores America’s past while also benefiting from a successful awards season. Director Christopher Nolan’s film received top honors from the directors, producers, and actors guilds; only one other film, “Apollo 13” from 1995, has done so without also taking home the best picture trophy. “Oppy” is the clear winner here, barring one of the biggest Oscar surprises in history. Still, there’s always a chance for a surprise because to the preferential ballot, which allows voters to select their top picks. And while “Oppenheimer” is undoubtedly a technical marvel, Greta Gerwig’s lighthearted, pink-washed sensation feels more relevant to today’s gender relations and existential issues, so if “Barbie” has a shot, we’re taking it.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
Will win: Gladstone
Should win: Hüller
Both Stone and Gladstone have won some great prizes this awards season, making the race somewhat of a tie. Stone won the Golden Globes, while Gladstone didn’t compete at Critics Choice or BAFTA. However, Gladstone has the Oscar advantage because to her most recent Screen Actors Guild trophy. (In the previous 13 years, the Oscar winner and SAG winner have only varied three times.) Both are amazing, but let’s hope for a large zag instead of a zigging as Hüller gives the courtroom drama “Anatomy of a Fall” a mysterious and magnetic quality to every scene.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
Will win: Murphy
Should win: Wright
Murphy has dominated Oscar season as the fascinating guy behind the bomb, and with his powerful “Oppenheimer” momentum and a searingly excellent, nuanced performance, there’s no stopping him now. Wright, another rookie, will undoubtedly return to the race eventually, but his “Fiction” role really fits him for everything. Wright out-curmudgeons the formidable Giamatti as a furious scholar grappling with unforeseen success, lends a big heart to an irascible grump, and, as one of our great character actors, makes the most of his moment.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera, “Barbie”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Will win/should win: Randolph
Randolph has dominated the Oscar race, and on Sunday night, she will also take home the gold. As well she should, considering this incredible turn. After roles in “Dolemite Is My Name” and “The United States vs. Billie Holiday,” Randolph’s portrayal of Mary Lamb is both poignant and funny. She is the tough-love head cook at a boarding school, and while negotiating the whole anguish of her first Christmas without her darling son, she establishes a mini-family with a crusty professor (Giamatti) and wayward student (Dominic Sessa).
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
Will win/should win: Downey
Despite his share of ups and downs and box office success, Downey has never won an Oscar. That all changes on Sunday, when he’ll clean up at his final awards ceremony and, ideally, make a statement on stage. Not only is he worthy in the “attaboy” sense of a career well-lived, but Downey has shown, via over a decade of superhero roles, that he can portray a formidable antagonist. In the role of Lewis Strauss, he puts Murphy’s J. Robert Oppenheimer through an intense ordeal motivated by power and pettiness, and in a generally depressing film, it’s pleasant to see the eventual retribution.
Best Director
Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Will win/should win: Nolan
Similar to Scorsese’s victory in 2007 for “The Departed,” Nolan is simply due. The film “Oppenheimer” showcases director Christopher Nolan’s skill, even though he has only received two nominations for best picture, two for original script, and one for adapted screenplay. The Trinity test alone is astounding. Still, he’s carved up a solid popular filmography for himself, starring in everything from “The Dark Knight” and “Memento” to “Inception” and “Interstellar,” and making a complex, three-hour drama about scientists into a smash hit is a remarkable accomplishment.
