Narendra Modi is set to return for a third five-year term as India’s prime minister, according to exit polls published on Saturday. These polls show a clear victory for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its smaller allies.
Polls conducted by six Indian TV stations and agencies all projected the Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning a majority of between 353 and 401 seats in India’s 543-seat Lok Sabha, easily defeating the opposition INDIA alliance. This coalition includes the formerly ruling Indian National Congress.
Strong Mandate for Modi
With these projections, Modi is poised to form the next government, marking a second decade in power. “The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with voters,” Modi posted on X on Saturday evening.
In the 2019 election, the NDA won 352 lower house seats, with the BJP alone winning 303. The Election Commission of India will report official results on June 4.
“All pollsters have given the BJP a very comfortable victory,” said Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi think-tank. “Some are suggesting the BJP will be above the 300 mark again — or even improve on that.”
Election Overview
The exit polls were released after the final round of voting ended on Saturday afternoon. A ban on the publication of opinion polls, in place since voting started on April 19, was lifted. The election was conducted in stages due to the logistical challenges of voting in a country with diverse geographies and nearly 1 billion registered voters.
The results offer the first indications of the shape of India’s next parliament after an election seen as a referendum on Modi’s decade in power.
If confirmed, this victory will bolster Modi’s image as a strong leader of a fast-growing economy, enhancing India’s geopolitical influence.
Historical Accuracy of Exit Polls
Exit polls have had a mixed record in predicting India’s elections. However, they have become more reliable in recent years. In 2014 and 2019, exit polls correctly forecasted victories for the BJP-led NDA, though they underestimated the number of seats won.
“I think this is exactly how things will pan out, and we will see a resounding victory for Modi, for the BJP a third consecutive time without any difficulty,” said Shazia Ilmi, a national spokesperson for the BJP.
Modi’s Campaign and Economic Record
India’s 73-year-old leader campaigned on the slogan of “Modi’s guarantee,” highlighting government welfare programs that benefit hundreds of millions of Indians and his record on reducing poverty and developing the world’s fifth-biggest economy. India’s GDP grew at a better-than-expected rate of 7.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March, and its economy has been one of the fastest-growing since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Opposition’s Criticism
The opposition INDIA alliance criticized the BJP’s economic record, citing high unemployment and accusing it of stifling the opposition by jailing two state leaders and freezing some Congress bank accounts on the eve of the election.
Before the exit poll results, senior opposition leaders, including Congress figures Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, met and claimed they were set to win. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge said the INDIA alliance would get “at least 295-plus seats.” Kharge also alleged that the exit poll surveys were “government surveys” manipulated to show favorable results for the BJP.
Economic Implications
Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services in Mumbai, noted that the results “suggest a solid win for the NDA,” with “better traction for the BJP” in states like Maharashtra and southern India. Arora mentioned that while the final outcome may differ from the exit polls, political continuity would be beneficial for economic stability and risk assets in the immediate term.
The Information is Collected from Livemint and CNBC.
