Lionsgate is pulling off an unexpected box office heist this weekend, as Now You See Me 3—officially titled Now You See Me: Now You Don’t—is sprinting to a surprise #1 finish. The long-delayed sequel is conjuring an estimated $21 million to $24 million domestic debut, comfortably stealing the crown from director Edgar Wright’s The Running Man, which is choking on arrival.
The R-rated Glen Powell vehicle, once a buzzy fall contender, is proving to be a catastrophic misfire, tracking for a disastrous $16 million to $19 million open against a massive $110 million budget.
Key Facts & Quick Takes
-
The Upset: Now You See Me: Now You Don’t (Lionsgate) is dramatically over-performing, tracking to win the Nov. 14-16 weekend with an estimated $21M-$24M. Pre-weekend projections were broader, in the $18M-$25M range.
-
The Bomb: The Running Man (Paramount) is collapsing in real-time. With a $110 million production budget, its projected $16M-$19M opening makes it one of the biggest flops of 2025.
-
The Audience Verdict: Audiences are embracing the “magic” of NYSM3, a PG-13 crowd-pleaser. They are rejecting The Running Man, which earned a lukewarm B+ CinemaScore and sports a divided 64% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes.
-
The IP Lesson: This weekend is a brutal tale of two IPs. NYSM3 proves a 9-year-gap can build nostalgia for a beloved cast, while Running Man proves that a star (Glen Powell) and auteur director (Edgar Wright) cannot save a muddled, expensive adaptation.
The Heist: ‘Now You See Me 3’ Outsmarts the Competition
Nine years after Now You See Me 2 left theaters, many analysts questioned if audiences still cared about the Four Horsemen. This weekend, Lionsgate got its answer.
The studio’s final marketing push, which included the cast performing real magic tricks at the New York premiere appears to have paid off, converting latent nostalgia into opening-night ticket sales. The return of the full original cast—Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, and Dave Franco—along with newcomers like Ariana Greenblatt and Dominic Sessa, has been a key draw.
Reviews have called the Ruben Fleischer-directed sequel a “crowd-pleasing comeback” highlighting the franchise’s core appeal: slick, fast-paced, escapist entertainment. In a year dominated by heavy-hitting blockbusters like A Minecraft Movie and Superman NYSM3 provides a lighter, PG-13 alternative for families and date-night crowds.
The film’s performance is a significant victory for Lionsgate, which has struggled with some of its other 2025 IP plays, such as the John Wick spinoff Ballerina, which grossed a disappointing $58 million domestically earlier this year . The success of NYSM3 not only vindicates the studio’s decision to greenlight the sequel but also breathes new life into a property that already has a fourth installment in development.
‘Running Man’ Stumbles Out of the Gate
While Lionsgate celebrates, executives at Paramount are facing a dystopian nightmare of their own. The Running Man is not just underperforming; it is bombing spectacularly.
The $110 million production, which leaned heavily on the appeal of “it” star Glen Powell and visionary director Edgar Wright, has failed to connect with critics or audiences.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
This is a financial bloodbath. Let’s break down the metrics:
-
Budget: $110 million To break even, a film of this size typically needs to gross $275 million worldwide.
-
Opening: $16M-$19M This is a catastrophic start. It will be lucky to clear $50 million domestically, guaranteeing a nine-figure write-down for the studio.
-
Audience Scores: A B+ CinemaScore is a poor sign for a film that needs strong word-of-mouth. This grade indicates audiences found the film merely “okay,” effectively killing any chance of it “legging out” in the coming weeks.
-
Critical Reception: Reviews were sharply divided. While The Guardian called it “likable and fun other outlets like Cosmic Book News labeled it “horrible” and a “bland, joyless remake” . This critical incoherence signaled that the film was not a “must-see” event.
Why Did It Fail?
Analysts point to a perfect storm of fatal flaws. The R-rating for “bloody violence immediately alienated younger audiences, while the 1982-era “retro-futurist satire may have felt dated to modern viewers.
Furthermore, the film’s tone appears muddled. The Washington Post review noted that director Edgar Wright’s “jocular” sensibility may be a poor fit for Stephen King’s grim source material.
Ultimately, The Running Man is a case study in studio hubris. It’s an expensive, R-rated, politically charged sci-fi satire based on a 40-year-old book, sold as a mainstream blockbuster. The audience, it turns out, was not running to theaters to see it.
Expert & Studio Voices
While official studio statements on the weekend numbers are not expected until Monday, the press tour provided insight into the winning film’s appeal.
In an interview with the Today show, NYSM3 star Jesse Eisenberg emphasized the film’s commitment to practical magic, a factor that appears to have resonated with audiences.
This focus on tangible, “real” illusion stands in stark contrast to the CGI-heavy dystopia of The Running Man, offering audiences a spectacle they could, quite literally, believe in.
What to Watch Next
The box office battle of November 14-16, 2025, is a clear lesson in budget control and knowing your audience.
-
For Now You See Me 3: The future is bright. With a strong opening and a clear runway before the Thanksgiving holiday, the film has a real shot at a $70-$80 million domestic total. This all but guarantees that the in-development Now You See Me 4 will be fast-tracked by Lionsgate.
-
For The Running Man: This is an extinction-level event. The film will bleed theaters within two weeks and will be relegated to streaming platforms as a costly write-off for Paramount. It also serves as a major blow to Glen Powell’s status as a standalone box office draw.
-
For the 2025 Box Office: The year, which has seen massive successes like A Minecraft Movie ($423.9M) and Lilo & Stitch ($423.8M), is still healthy. All eyes now turn to Disney’s Moana 2 (Nov 27) and Focus Features’ Nosferatu (Dec 25) to close out the year.
This weekend, however, belongs to the Horsemen. In a battle of magic versus muscle, magic won. And it wasn’t even close.
