Assessing Bangladesh and global data, a group of analysts say the situation is likely to deteriorate if the Indian variants of Coronavirus enters Bangladesh.
“Bangladesh has a huge border with India. So no matter how much formal communication is stopped — there is no guarantee that the virus will not come there,” said Dr. Shafiun Nahin Shimul, a teacher at the Health Economics Institute at Dhaka University, and the head of an analyst group.
“It is spreading widely in India and there is a talk of double variants of viruses,” he says.
“On the other hand, we had earlier given the impression that the peak or peak of the second wave would come at the end of May or by June. But since the beginning of this month, some steps have been taken including a low lockdown.
“Now our model says that the second wave pick or peak may come in July. But it may not be that bad if everyone follows hygiene properly,” he told BBC Bangla.
He says that at least 10/12,000 infections a day are identified as peak or maximum peak.
Dr. Shafiun Nahin Shimul, who is leading the team, is working as part of a consortium at Oxford University and has to analyze the Coronavirus situation in Bangladesh every two weeks and present an idea paper about the possible picture.
According to a report of Dhaka Tribune, health experts said that Bangladesh’s healthcare system will not be able to cope with further surges in Covid-19 patient numbers caused by the entry of the Indian variants. Hospitals may be able to deal with the initial wave of patients, but they will soon become overwhelmed.
The team of Bangladeshi analysts is officially called Bangladesh Como Modelling Group. The consortium in Oxford is being worked by researchers and analysts from 42 countries.
The concept paper, which contains a possible picture of the Coronavirus situation in Bangladesh, was submitted to the government on March 30.
But this time death and infection have been on the rise in Bangladesh since the second wave began in early March.
The death toll was more than 90 per day for nine consecutive days till Thursday. For a few days in a row, the number was 100 more.
Shafiun Nahin Shimul says the pace of infection has slowed down a bit now but shops are opening on Sunday and it is not certain if there are restrictions after April 28. So now that the infection is slow, they feel that the infection will increase again after 8/10 days of incubation time, said a report of BBC News Bangla.
“But our model says it won’t be a problem if educational institutions open up to make sure they wear masks”.
Dr Abu Jamil Faisal, another member of the analyst team, says there were lockdowns and travel restrictions in the country when they analyzed.
“Our ideas will depend on the situation. If everything opens up in front, things may be different. The lockdown was now scheduled to continue till April 28. But before that the shops are being opened. So there was a commotion,” he said.
He said that while analysing the situation and understanding the possible situation, they found that there was a lot of coordination in government work to deal with the coronavirus situation, while the public representatives were playing virtually no role.
“There is a great lack of coordination. Suppose ten ministries are supposed to work to implement the corona’s instructions. But that’s not happening. Again, the work that was supposed to be attended by the people’s representatives, including the Prime Minister’s call or instructions, to stand by the poor people was also not visible. Where is their role in implementing the lockdown?”
He said integrated and effective steps are needed to break the corona infection chain as well as ensure 100% hygiene rearing.