Live betting is a very different activity to ordinary betting. The pressure is on, with quick decisions to make, and things change by the second. It’s more dynamic, but perhaps more reliant on gut feeling and shallow judgement calls more than strategy. Though, that isn’t to say you can’t pre-write some strategy beforehand.
Live odds generation – man or machine?
A common question often comes up over whether sportsbooks generate their own live odds or not. The answer isn’t always that simple, but it does involve both technology and human expertise. Or, whether it’s a man or an algorithm – and if so, how would that even work?
Sophisticated algorithms do form the foundation of a live bet. These complex programs use pre-match odds as a starting point and then continuously crunch real-time data feeds. Inputs include the current score and elapsed time with key incidents. But, it cannot be fully automated. Human odds compilers or traders actively monitor the algorithms and make manual adjustments for factors that algorithms might miss, like subtle shifts in unreported injuries or weather changes.
This man-power is expensive, so some sportsbooks use live oddsmaking software that centralizes it.
Understanding the delay in live odds
Bettors will perceive a delay between witnessing a key event on screen and the corresponding odds update or market suspension. This lag is intentional, and the broadcast feed itself are also slightly delayed compared to the actual live action.
Data transmission from official sources takes time, and so the algorithms need milliseconds to process new information and recalculate probabilities. Crucial moments like goals or penalties also require verification too, before odds dramatically shift ensuring accuracy.
There is no way to exploit this time delay, because the bet itself takes a moment to validate. And, to further protect from these risks, betting frequently becomes suspended.
Why live betting gets suspended
Live betting markets experience suspensions, which is where betting is temporarily unavailable. This is a standard operational procedure which is triggered by pivotal moments within the event.
Essentially, it’s when big things look like they’re about to happen. If things become volatile, or perhaps there’s a penalty, suspension will take the oxygen out of the market because it’s chaotic to calculate – or impossible within the time needed.
Is it ever worth cashing out?
Chasing out isn’t necessarily tied to live betting, though often sportsbooks who offer live betting will also offer cashing out – because they’re accustomed to live odds, which both are dependent upon.
Chasing out is a little bit like the opposite of live betting. You have the chance to settle your original stake, and this changes depending on the original odds and how far through the bet you are. Given that odds already price in a margin for profits, cashing out typically prices in another margin. So, the sportsbook has two stabs at profits, meaning that your expected value may drop if you’re always taking cash outs. But, there is a time and a place for them – especially when you feel the mood shift, and suddenly lose confidence.
Live betting uses both algorithms and humans, and this demanding nature means that it’s often outsourced. Although watching a live feed with minimal delay is important, you cannot gain an edge by being faster than the bookie, in part because they will simply suspend odds. You can, however, see opportunities during games that others may be missing.
