Rafael Nadal, the King of Clay, said Thursday that he will not compete in this year’s French Open, which begins on May 28. Rafa has a 112-3 record and 14 titles at Roland Garros, the most by any male or female player in tennis history. Nadal has not played since the Australian Open in January due to a hip injury, and he has stated that 2024 will be his final season. Rafa will be absent from Roland Garros for the first time in 18 years.
The prospects of winning the French Open have changed in light of this news.
Current Men’s Odds to Win The French Open
- Carlos Alcaraz +125
- Novak Djokovic +185
- Holger Rune +700
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +900
- Jannik Sinner +1400
Since 2005, only four men have claimed a Roland Garros championship: Rafael Nadal (14), Novak Djokovic (2), Stan Wawrinka (1), and Roger Federer (1). Only Djokovic and Wawrinka have a chance to continue the trend.
With Nadal’s absence, examining the men’s draw is more essential than ever. However, if you want to place a futures wager before the draw, here are two players besides Alcaraz and Djokovic.
Holger Rune +700
After defeating Djokovic in three sets, the 20-year-old could win the Italian Open if he faces Casper Ruud in the Saturday semifinal. Since defeating Djokovic in the final to win ATP Masters 1000 Paris in early November, he has reached the final of the ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo and won ATP 250 Munich last month.
Rune’s style of play is beginning to resemble that of Djokovic: strong from the baseline, powerful forehand, and lethal drop shots. He is quick enough to make every stroke, has the stamina to play a baseline game, and has power in both his forehand and backhand. If Rune receives a favorable draw, I expect him to win his quarter and advance to the championship match.
Casper Ruud +1800
The Norwegian could be reaching his zenith just in time for Roland Garros. Ruud did not have an adequate offseason and did not take a respite to recharge. Instead, he participated in some exhibition matches before jumping directly into tournaments. At one point, he acknowledged that he was simply exhausted, and his 11-9 record in 2023 reflects this. Known as a clay-court specialist, he is presently 6-3 on clay this season, with losses in the round of 16 at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid.
However, Ruud had a fantastic Italian Open, highlighted by a dominant straight-set victory over clay-court specialist Francisco Cerndolo. Regardless of whether Ruud defeats Rune in the Italian Open semifinal, he will have a firm foundation from which to launch his French Open run.
Ruud has a decent game. In addition to his baseline prowess, he has improved his backhand and demonstrated the ability to make adjustments mid-match. Ruud is patient and reached the final of the French Open last year, succumbing to Rafael Nadal. Having this experience under his grasp is invaluable, and Ruud can capitalize on it.
Before placing a futures wager on which player will win the next title at Roland Garros, it is prudent to wait for the draw. However, these are the finest alternatives for Alcaraz and Djokovic to consider before the draw.
