A summertime wave of COVID-19 infections is arriving earlier than last year, spreading quickly across the United States. A new variant known as LB.1, which could soon become the dominant strain of the virus, is driving this surge.
Rising Infections Across the Country
For the first time in months, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that no states or territories have seen a slowdown in COVID-19 infections over the past week. The western states are experiencing the most significant increase, with virus indicators worsening rapidly.
Levels of virus detection in wastewater, an early signal of rising COVID-19 cases, are nearing “high” levels of infection risk, according to the CDC. Additionally, nursing home COVID-19 cases have accelerated in recent weeks in this region.
In Health and Human Services (HHS) Region 9, which includes states from Arizona to Hawaii, an average of 1.23% of emergency room visits are now due to COVID-19. This marks the highest average of COVID-19 emergency room visits in the region since early February.
Historical Trends and the Role of New Variants
Historically, surges in COVID-19 cases have followed a spring lull, though the timing has varied during the summer months. Last year, the surge in cases started in late July and peaked in emergency rooms around late August and early September, coinciding with the introduction of new vaccine shots.
Ruth Link-Gelles, head of the CDC’s COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness research, explained the difficulty in predicting COVID-19 trends compared to other viruses like flu and RSV, which have more consistent seasonal patterns.
“For flu and RSV, we have years and years of data with very similar trends over time. So, you can’t quite set your watch for when those seasons are going to start, but you can get close. For COVID, that’s not true at all,” she said at a recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) meeting.
The Rise of LB.1 and KP.3 Variants
Two new COVID-19 variants, KP.3 and LB.1, are gaining traction nationwide. KP.3 now accounts for roughly a third of cases, up from 25% two weeks ago, while LB.1 makes up 17.5% of cases, according to the CDC’s latest “Nowcast” projections. Both variants are displacing KP.2, a variant that had risen to dominance last month.
All three variants share a common ancestor in the JN.1 strain, which caused a significant wave of cases last winter. The CDC’s projections suggest that LB.1 might soon overtake KP.3, as it is growing at a faster rate.
Dr. Peter Marks from the FDA explained that these new variants emerged relatively quickly, necessitating a rapid response. Champions for Vaccine Education, Equity, and Progress hosted a webinar where Marks defended the FDA’s recent decision to select KP.2 as the strain for updated Moderna and Pfizer vaccines this fall.
An FDA advisory panel had earlier recommended the use of JN.1, but this decision reversed that recommendation. Despite lacking “iron-clad evidence,” Marks noted that the decision aimed to provide superior protection compared to vaccines targeting the older variant.
Vaccination Efforts and Future Outlook
The emergence of new variants has highlighted the importance of updated vaccinations. “There’s probably some degree of cross-protection, but the optimal protection probably involves making sure we get closest to what is actually circulating now,” Marks said.
The CDC is closely tracking the spread of KP.3 and LB.1. Early lab data from Japan, which has not yet undergone peer-review, indicates that one of LB.1’s mutations, known as S, could enable it to spread faster than other variants.
As the summer wave of COVID-19 infections continues to grow, especially in the western United States, health authorities emphasize the need for vigilance and updated vaccinations to combat the evolving virus.
The information is taken from CBS News and Times Now
