Every awards season, Oscar predictors study a complex mix of factors — previous nominations, the emotional depth of a role, momentum on the festival circuit, industry perception, and even the narrative surrounding a performer’s career. These elements often shape who rises to the top of the Academy Awards races.
This year’s competition across all acting categories is particularly rich, blending established Hollywood legends, frequent nominees seeking long-awaited wins, and rising stars making their first push toward Oscar recognition. The range of films — from emotional biopics and sweeping dramas to high-concept sci-fi, musicals, and intimate character pieces — adds even more unpredictability.
Below is a detailed look at the major contenders in every acting category and how they stack up in the fight for Oscar gold.
Best Actor
The Best Actor category brings together returning icons, respected contenders searching for overdue recognition, and fresh faces with breakout roles. The diversity of performances — from heartfelt portrayals to physical transformations — makes this one of the most competitive categories of the year.
Returning Champs
Leonardo DiCaprio — “One Battle After Another”
A previous Oscar winner with a long history of nominations, DiCaprio enters the season at full strength. His film is widely regarded as a major Best Picture frontrunner, placing him at the center of momentum. The role itself is the kind of emotionally wide-ranging part voters tend to favor: he plays a former revolutionary pulled back into danger when his daughter’s life is threatened, navigating everything from vulnerability and fear to humor and explosive desperation. His ability to blend high drama with physicality and comedic timing adds depth to what may become one of the defining performances of his career.
George Clooney — “Jay Kelly”
With multiple Oscars already to his name, Clooney returns to the awards landscape in a role seemingly tailor-made for him — a fading movie star navigating a quiet, introspective chapter of life. His performance stands out for its restraint and subtlety. Industry buzz highlights how much emotional detail is embedded in his smallest gestures, pauses, and silences. While Clooney’s charm is effortless, this role draws attention to the nuanced craft beneath that charisma. His long-standing status as an Academy favorite only strengthens his campaign.
Keep an Eye On: Brendan Fraser for “Rental Family,” a past Best Actor winner who remains highly respected among voters.
Back in the Ring
Timothée Chalamet — “Marty Supreme”
Despite his young age, Chalamet is already considered “overdue” by some Oscar watchers. Known for transformative performances, he delivers another standout turn as a ping-pong prodigy whose talent collides with the emotional strain of competition and identity. The film’s uniqueness and its strong early praise position him well, and his recent near-miss earlier this year has only intensified the narrative that his time may be approaching.
Ethan Hawke — “Blue Moon”
Hawke, an industry veteran with multiple past nominations in other categories, may finally earn his first lead actor recognition. His portrayal of lyricist Lorenz Hart highlights vulnerability, artistic turmoil, and the complex emotional life behind a legendary creative partnership. Hollywood has always embraced films about artists, and Hawke’s deeply committed performance is being described as the finest of his career.
Keep an Eye On: Hugh Jackman in “Song Sung Blue,” whose dramatic range historically makes him a recurring awards presence.
New to the Race
Joel Edgerton — “Train Dreams”
Edgerton delivers a grounded, emotionally resonant performance that anchors the film. As the movie gains momentum, critics increasingly point to the depth and quiet strength he brings to a role shaped heavily by internal struggle and personal reckoning. His understated approach is earning admiration across the industry.
Oscar Isaac — “Frankenstein”
Isaac takes on one of literature’s most iconic figures with a modern, psychologically complex interpretation. His performance captures the ambition, guilt, and moral ambiguity of a scientist grappling with the consequences of his creation. Many pundits initially underestimated the film, but Isaac’s layered work is now being recognized as one of the most compelling portrayals of the character to date.
Dwayne Johnson — “The Smashing Machine”
Known largely for blockbuster roles, Johnson surprises audiences with an emotionally intense, physically transformative portrayal of UFC fighter Mark Kerr. He embodies both the power of an athlete and the fragility of a man dealing with inner turmoil. This career-redefining turn could mark his arrival as a serious dramatic contender.
Best Actress
This year’s Best Actress race is filled with powerhouse performances — from previously crowned winners to long-celebrated talents finally in the lead spotlight, to newcomers making bold, memorable debuts. The roles themselves are rich and varied, offering emotional, psychological, and sometimes surreal challenges.
Returning Champ
Emma Stone — “Bugonia”
Stone returns with another fearless performance, this time as a pharmaceutical CEO who may secretly be an alien. Known for fully immersing herself in unconventional and daring roles, Stone again demonstrates astonishing range. Her ability to balance emotional sincerity with eccentricity makes her one of the strongest competitors of the season. With two Best Actress wins already, she enters as a dominant force whose work continues to capture the Academy’s admiration.
Keep an Eye On: Jodie Foster for “A Private Life,” a two-time winner whose critical acclaim this year could make her a late-season spoiler.
Back in the Ring
Jessie Buckley — “Hamnet”
Buckley’s emotionally raw performance as Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare and mother of the doomed Hamnet, has positioned her as an early frontrunner. Her portrayal blends grief, resilience, and a deep connection to nature, offering a textured interpretation of a woman long overshadowed in historical memory.
Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked: For Good”
Erivo returns to the role that has defined much of her recent career, delivering a commanding performance as the would-be Wicked Witch of the West. Her vocals, presence, and emotional depth elevate the character further, and the film’s major commercial success puts her squarely in the spotlight.
Kate Hudson — “Song Sung Blue”
Hudson shines in a heartfelt, musically infused role as a woman starting a Neil Diamond tribute band. She brings warmth, charm, and heartbreak, demonstrating a maturity and vulnerability that may resonate deeply with voters.
Amanda Seyfried — “The Testament of Ann Lee”
Seyfried takes an unconventional role — playing the leader of the Shaker Movement, a woman considered by followers to be a female Christ figure. Her performance is daring and complex, combining spirituality, restraint, and emotional turmoil. It is the kind of bold acting that often garners Academy appreciation.
New to the Race
Rose Byrne — “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Byrne delivers a fearless portrayal of a troubled mother navigating the dark side of emotional strain. Her performance, already recognized with the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance, is unflinching and emotionally intricate. This visibility places her firmly within Oscar discussions.
Chase Infiniti — “One Battle After Another”
In an astonishing feature debut, Infiniti shows remarkable poise and skill, holding her own alongside some of Hollywood’s biggest names. Her performance is fresh, alive, and nuanced — exactly the kind of breakout the Academy sometimes loves to celebrate.
Renate Reinsve — “Sentimental Value”
Reinsve, whose previous work nearly earned her an Oscar nod, reunites with director Joachim Trier in a role that demands emotional honesty and vulnerability. She portrays an actress struggling to connect with her filmmaker father, delivering a sensitive and introspective performance that could finally bring her into the Oscar fold.
Keep an Eye On: Lucy Liu (“Rosemead”), Sydney Sweeney (“Christy”), and Tessa Thompson (“Hedda”), each of whom is gaining momentum in early awards discussions.
Supporting Actor
The Supporting Actor category features an exceptional mix of acclaimed veterans, rising stars, and long-established performers finally receiving overdue recognition. Many of these performances bring intensity, emotional weight, or scene-stealing charisma.
Returning Champs
Benicio del Toro — “One Battle After Another”
Del Toro brings precision and magnetism to the role of a mysterious Sensei, blending humor, menace, and charm. His ability to steal scenes from even the biggest stars keeps him firmly in the awards conversation. With past wins in this category, he remains a reliable contender.
Sean Penn — “One Battle After Another”
Penn delivers a darkly funny and commanding performance as a military figure whose words and actions don’t always align. His role is bold, unpredictable, and full of emotional extremes — the kind of showcase that often resonates strongly with voters.
Back in the Ring
Paul Mescal — “Hamnet”
Mescal continues to build a reputation for emotionally rich work. Here he plays a young William Shakespeare, capturing the uncertainties, passions, and ambitions of a writer on the brink of artistic discovery. His sensitivity and presence make him a compelling candidate.
Jeremy Strong — “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
Strong plays Bruce Springsteen’s longtime manager Jon Landau with dedication and authenticity. Despite doubts after his previous film underperformed commercially, Strong’s consistent critical praise and deep immersion into roles make him a strong returning contender.
New to the Race
Jacob Elordi — “Frankenstein”
Elordi’s portrayal of the Creature is heartbreaking and humanized, offering a new lens on the iconic role. His emotional transparency and physical commitment have earned wide acclaim, marking him as a standout in the supporting category.
Delroy Lindo — “Sinners”
One of the most respected character actors of his generation, Lindo delivers yet another compelling turn. His reputation and the emotional power of his role may help him secure his long-deserved first nomination.
Adam Sandler — “Jay Kelly”
Sandler surprises audiences with one of his most grounded dramatic performances to date, playing a weary manager trying to keep his star client afloat. His years of coming close to nominations may finally pay off with this emotionally resonant role.
Stellan Skarsgård — “Sentimental Value”
Skarsgård offers a haunting portrayal of an estranged father whose absence shapes the emotional world of his family. His work is quiet but devastating, elevating him into serious awards contention.
Keep an Eye On: Billy Crudup (“Jay Kelly”) and Mark Hamill (“Life of Chuck”), both of whom could emerge as major players depending on how the season evolves.
Supporting Actress
This year’s Supporting Actress field brings an impressive blend of returning icons and new discoveries. These performances offer emotional intensity, thematic weight, and memorable screen presence.
Returning Champ
Gwyneth Paltrow — “Marty Supreme”
Paltrow’s return to the big screen is generating excitement. She plays a fading movie star married to a brash industrialist, bringing emotional nuance and quiet pain to a role that reminds audiences of her long-untapped dramatic strengths. Her presence in the race highlights how deeply voters appreciate a well-executed comeback.
Keep an Eye On: Laura Dern (“Jay Kelly”), a prior winner who consistently draws awards attention.
Back in the Ring
Ariana Grande — “Wicked: For Good”
Already nominated in this category for the first part of the musical, Grande receives even stronger praise this time around. She brings warmth, humor, and emotional growth to Glinda, a role that expands significantly in the sequel, giving her more dramatic layers to explore.
Amy Madigan — “Weapons”
Madigan delivers a crowd-pleasing performance as an actual witch in a hit genre film. Her commanding presence and darkly humorous style bring fresh life to a role that could easily become one of the season’s audience favorites.
Keep an Eye On: Glenn Close for “Wake Up Dead Man,” an eight-time nominee always capable of shaking up the race.
New to the Race
Elle Fanning — “Sentimental Value”
Fanning is pitch-perfect as an American actress stepping into the fragile ecosystem of a European family. She blends confidence, innocence, and sensitivity, offering an emotionally complex supporting presence that elevates the entire film.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — “Sentimental Value”
Lilleaas brings warmth and emotional truth to her role as a devoted sister and daughter. Her naturalistic acting style anchors the film’s family dynamics, earning her increasing attention from awards-watchers.
Teyana Taylor — “One Battle After Another”
Taylor delivers a commanding, magnetic performance as a revolutionary who refuses to let motherhood hold her back. She radiates strength, passion, and defiance, making her one of the film’s most unforgettable presences.
Keep an Eye On: Regina Hall (“One Battle After Another”), Jennifer Lopez (“Kiss of the Spider Woman”), Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”), and Mari Yamamoto (“Rental Family”) — all of whom could enter the race depending on how the season unfolds.
