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Third Covid-19 Wave in India Could be As Severe As Second

The third wave of Covid-19 could be as strong as the second and last up to 98 days, according to the State Bank of India (SBI) released Tuesday.

Citing international experience, the SBI Ecowrap report says the intensity of the third wave will not be significantly different from the second. However, the number of deaths could be minimized with better preparation, the report said.

“The average duration of the third wave for major countries is 98 days and that of the second wave is 108 days, with the peak of the third wave being a multiple of 1.8 and 5.2 (for India, 4.2),” the report says.

The report comes at a time when India is preparing for a likely third wave of the pandemic.
The second Covid-19 pandemic wave, already in retreat, claimed an unprecedented toll: 4.14 lakh in a single day.

India recorded nearly 90.3 lakh Covid-19 cases in May, the highest monthly figure for any country. Although the number of cases declined steadily in the second half of the month, it was so high overall that the number of cases in May was 30% higher than the previous record of 69.4 million cases also recorded in India in April. More than 1.2 lakh Covid deaths were recorded in India in May alone.

The report notes that the total number of deaths in the third wave could be reduced to 40,000 from 1.7 lakh in the second wave if severe cases were reduced to 5%. In the second wave, severe cases reached 20% of all infections.

According to the report, this target can be achieved by expanding health infrastructures and actively implementing immunization.

Currently, just over 12.3% of people have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 3.27% are fully vaccinated. The government plans to carry out up to 1,000 vaccinations per day in mid-July or early August.

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