Operation Absolute Resolve: A Deep Dive into the Capture of Nicolás Maduro and the Struggle for Truth

The pre-dawn sky over Caracas was shattered on January 3, 2026, not by the usual cacophony of a waking metropolis, but by the precise, thundering cadence of a geopolitical earthquake. In an operation the White House has dubbed “Absolute Resolve,” elite US Delta Force units executed a high-risk extraction deep within Venezuelan territory, effectively decapitating the Bolivarian government by capturing President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores.

Within hours, the world witnessed surreal footage: the leader of a sovereign nation, dressed in a grey tracksuit and wearing noise-cancelling headphones, being escorted across the deck of the USS Iwo Jima. He is now en route to a federal detention center in Brooklyn, New York, to face long-standing narco-terrorism charges.

But as the dust settles on the rubble of the Fuerte Tiuna military headquarters, a second, perhaps more volatile war has begun: the war over the narrative. President Donald Trump, freshly returned to the Oval Office, has declared this a victory for “Western civilization,” asserting that the United States will temporarily “run” Venezuela to prevent anarchy and restore oil production.

This analysis peels back the layers of triumph and rhetoric. We examine the veracity of the administration’s justifications, the legality of a unilateral takeover, and the perilous reality on the ground in a Caracas that is neither fully liberated nor fully conquered.

Key Takeaways

• Historic Extraction: On January 3, 2026, US Delta Force units captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores in “Operation Absolute Resolve.”

• Strategic Prelude: The raid was the culmination of “Operation Southern Spear,” a months-long campaign involving cyber-warfare and drone strikes.

• Fact-Check: Intelligence contradicts claims of Maduro directing US street gangs or Venezuela being the primary source of US cocaine.

• Legal “Nuclear Option”: The administration is bypassing Congress by invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to justify the operation.

• Economic Heist: Regime loyalists are reportedly fleeing with gold and cryptocurrency, complicating US plans to use oil revenue for recovery.

• Uncertain Future: With key figures like Diosdado Cabello at large, the US faces a high risk of insurgency in a polarized nation.

The Operation: Surgical Strikes and Sovereign Soil

To understand the political fallout, we must first parse the military reality. The Pentagon describes “Operation Absolute Resolve” as a masterpiece of modern warfare, surgical, overwhelming, and decisive. However, on-the-ground reports paint a more complex picture of the night that ended 13 years of Chavismo.

The Build-Up: Operation Southern Spear

While the world woke up to the shock of the January 3rd extraction, military analysts have now confirmed that the groundwork was laid months ago under the classified code name “Operation Southern Spear.”

According to leaked Pentagon briefings, the “softening up” phase began in late November 2025. It involved a distinct shift from diplomatic pressure to kinetic preparation:

• The Drone War: Throughout December 2025, a series of unexplained explosions at clandestine airstrips in Apure state were originally attributed to internal cartel feuds. Intelligence sources now confirm these were CIA-operated drone strikes designed to degrade the Cartel of the Suns’ rapid-response capabilities.

• The Cyber Siege: Unit 8200 (Israeli intelligence), working in tandem with US Cyber Command, reportedly infiltrated the Venezuelan encrypted communications network (VeneSat-1) weeks prior, allowing the US to track Maduro’s personal security detail in real-time.

• The “Trojan Horse”: Sources inside the Palacio de Miraflores suggest that the US successfully turned a high-ranking member of Maduro’s inner security circle in October, providing the precise blueprints of the bunker complex used during the raid.

The Military Timeline

While the US claims a “bloodless coup” regarding civilian life, hospital logs in Caracas indicate dozens of casualties near the military exclusion zones. The Venezuelan military, decapitated of its top command, offered sporadic but intense resistance, particularly from the Guardia Nacional.

The visuals of US Captures Nicolas Maduro in custody are intended to project absolute dominance. Yet, they also evoke a history of US interventionism in Latin America—from Noriega in Panama to Grenada—that complicates the “liberation” narrative. This was not a domestic uprising supported by the US; it was a direct US insertion.

Fact-Checking the Casus Belli: The Investigation

The justification for “Absolute Resolve” rests on four central pillars articulated by President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The investigative unit, cross-referencing intelligence reports, DEA data, and international legal statutes, has stress-tested these claims.

Claim 1: The Tren de Aragua Connection

The Claim: President Trump asserted that the invasion was an act of domestic defense, claiming, “Maduro is the puppet master of Tren de Aragua, the gang terrorizing American cities. We cut off the head of the snake.”

The Reality: Tren de Aragua is indeed a transnational criminal threat, but the “puppet master” narrative is largely a fabrication of convenience.

• Intelligence Consensus: CIA and DEA assessments from 2024 and 2025 have consistently described Tren de Aragua as a decentralized criminal franchise. They do not take orders from the Miraflores Palace.

• Adversarial Relationship: In late 2023, the Maduro regime actually raided the Tocorón prison, the gang’s headquarters, in an attempt to dismantle them. The gang thrives on the failure of the Venezuelan state, not its direct command.

Verdict: FALSE. Linking the state directly to the gang’s US operations conflates state corruption with criminal opportunism to justify military action.

Claim 2: Venezuela as the “Narco-State” Epicenter

The Claim: The administration argued that Venezuela is the “primary source” of illicit drugs poisoning the American public, necessitating a forceful stop to the flow.

The Reality: While the Cartel of the Suns (military officials involved in trafficking) is real, the geography of cocaine tells a different story.

• Production vs. Transit: According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Colombia and Peru remain the world’s top producers of coca. Venezuela is primarily a transit zone.

• Flow Data: US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data shows that the vast majority of cocaine entering the US comes via Pacific maritime routes from Colombia or through Central America, not directly from Venezuelan ports.

Verdict: MISLEADING. Venezuela is a hub, but labeling it the singular “primary source” ignores the supply chain realities of Colombia (a US ally) to focus hostility on a political adversary.

Claim 3: The “Pottery Barn” Rule and Legal Authority

The Claim: “We broke it, we fix it, we run it,” Trump declared. The administration claims legal authority to administer Venezuela’s government and oil fields until a “judicious transition” is possible.

The Reality: There is no precedent in international law for this action.

• UN Charter Violation: Article 2(4) explicitly prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.

• No Authorization: Unlike the 1991 Gulf War or even the Haiti interventions, there is no UN Security Council resolution authorizing this. It is a unilateral action.

• The Hague: Legal scholars warn that this constitutes an act of aggression. Seizing control of natural resources (oil) specifically violates the Geneva Conventions regarding pillage and the rights of occupying powers.

Verdict: ILLEGAL UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW. The US is operating in a legal vacuum, relying entirely on “might makes right.”

Claim 4: A Universal Celebration

The Claim: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, “The streets of Caracas are one big party. Everyone is thanking President Trump.”

The Reality: The reaction is deeply polarized and fraught with anxiety.

• The Opposition: Supporters of Maria Corina Machado and the diaspora in Doral, Florida, are indeed celebrating. For them, this is the end of a nightmare.

• The Chavistas: Millions of Venezuelans remain loyal to the ideology, if not the man. Protests have already erupted in the barrios of Western Caracas.

• The Silent Majority: Interviews on the ground reveal a prevailing emotion of fear—fear of a power vacuum, fear of civil war, and fear of foreign occupation.

Verdict: EXAGGERATED. The “liberation” narrative erases the significant portion of the population that views this as an imperialist invasion.

The Trump Calculus: Strategic Wins and Political Risks

Beyond the humanitarian rhetoric, analysts point to a convergence of domestic and geopolitical interests that made this high-risk operation attractive to the Trump White House in 2026. The capture of Maduro is not just a law enforcement action; it is a multi-pronged strategic play.

1. The “Triple Threat” Domestic Victory

For the administration, decapitating the Maduro regime offers a potential “silver bullet” for three major campaign promises:

• The Border Crisis: By removing the primary driver of Venezuelan displacement, economic collapse under Maduro, the White House aims to stem the flow of migrants at the source. It allows the administration to reframe asylum seekers as citizens of a “liberated” nation who can now return home.

• The Drug War: As per the “narco-terrorism” indictment, the capture allows President Trump to claim a tangible victory in the war on drugs, akin to the 1989 invasion of Panama that removed Manuel Noriega. It is a powerful “law and order” narrative for the domestic base.

• Energy Dominance: With US gas prices fluctuating, control over the world’s largest proven oil reserves (300+ billion barrels) aligns with the “Drill, Baby, Drill” doctrine. Trump explicitly stated American companies would “rebuild” the sector, positioning US firms like Chevron to displace Chinese and Russian creditors who held dominance over PDVSA.

2. Enforcing the “Trump Corollary”

Geopolitically, this operation is a sharp enforcement of the Monroe Doctrine. By physically removing a Russian and Chinese client state leader from the Western Hemisphere, the US sends a stark message to Beijing and Moscow: the Americas are closed to foreign influence. It effectively erases a strategic foothold for adversaries who had planned to use Venezuela as a forward operating base.

3. The Calculated Risks

However, the “Pottery Barn” rule, “you break it, you own it,” presents massive liabilities.

• The Occupation Trap: If the “Provisional Council” fails to restore basic services within weeks, US forces risk being seen not as liberators, but as occupiers.

• The Legal Quagmire: By bypassing Congress and using the Alien Enemies Act, the administration has opened itself to challenges that could reach the Supreme Court, potentially setting a precedent that expands executive war powers beyond any modern standard.

The Legal Weapon: The Alien Enemies Act of 1798

Perhaps the most controversial aspect of the operation is not the military hardware, but the legal software. To bypass the need for a new Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), the Trump administration has invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798.

• The Precedent: Originally signed by John Adams to target French nationals during the Quasi-War, the law allows the President to detain, deport, or subdue citizens of a “hostile nation” during times of declared war or “predatory incursion.”

• The Application: The White House Counsel argues that the Tren de Aragua gang’s presence in US cities constitutes a “predatory incursion” sponsored by a foreign power.

• The Constitutional Crisis: Legal scholars at the ACLU and the UN Human Rights Council have called this a “nuclear stretch” of executive power. By classifying the entire Venezuelan state apparatus as an “enemy combatant force” under a 228-year-old law, the administration is effectively operating under martial law rules, bypassing modern international conventions on sovereignty.

The “Pottery Barn” Scenario: Can the US “Run” Venezuela?

The most audacious aspect of President Trump’s announcement is the plan to temporarily administer the Venezuelan state. This is nation-building on a scale not seen since Iraq in 2003, but with even higher stakes due to the proximity to the US homeland.

The Governance Vacuum

With Maduro gone, the chain of command has shattered. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is in hiding, likely seeking asylum in the Russian embassy. The US plan involves installing a “Provisional Governing Council,” likely led by exiled opposition figures, but backed by US bayonets.

Immediate Challenges:

1. Policing: The local police are infiltrated by colectivos (armed pro-government gangs). Who polices the streets? If it is the US Marines, they will face an insurgency.

2. Infrastructure: The grid is failing. Water is scarce. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) is mobilizing, but the logistics of feeding 28 million people in a hostile environment are nightmarish.

The Oil Question

“We will get the oil flowing to pay for the recovery,” Trump promised. This statement has alarmed economists and environmentalists alike.

The Venezuelan Oil Reality Check:

Analysis: Chevron and other US energy giants are reportedly drafting plans to take over PDVSA fields. However, sabotaged pipelines and a workforce loyal to the old regime could delay production for years. Furthermore, seizing foreign sovereign assets to pay for their own occupation is a legal minefield that will be fought in courts from London to New York for decades.

The Looting of the Central Bank: A Race Against Time

While US troops secure the oil fields, a shadow war is raging in the global financial system. Intelligence indicates that in the hours before his capture, regime loyalists initiated a massive “fire sale” of Venezuelan sovereign assets.

• The Gold Flight: Satellite imagery from January 2 captured a Russian-flagged cargo plane departing Maiquetía Airport, believed to be loaded with tons of gold bullion from the Central Bank vaults, destined for Turkey or the UAE.

• The “Petro” Dump: US Treasury officials are currently tracking a massive movement of cryptocurrency. Key Chavistas are reportedly attempting to wash billions in stolen funds through decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and privacy coins like Monero to evade US sanctions.

The Impact: If these assets are successfully liquidated and hidden, the “Provisional Governing Council” will inherit a treasury that is not just empty, but effectively in debt to criminal syndicates, making the economic recovery nearly impossible without massive US taxpayer bailouts.

Geopolitical Aftershocks: The World Reacts

The capture of Maduro has not occurred in a vacuum. It has sent shockwaves through the geopolitical alliances that defined the last decade.

Russia and China

Moscow and Beijing are the biggest losers here. They hold billions in Venezuelan debt.

• Russia’s Response: The Kremlin has labeled this a “kidnapping” and placed its military assets in Cuba and Nicaragua on high alert.

• China’s Leverage: Beijing may not respond militarily, but it can cripple the transition economically by calling in loans and freezing Venezuelan assets held in Asian banks.

The Latin American Split

• Brazil & Colombia: President Petro of Colombia, a leftist, finds himself in an impossible position. He cannot support a US invasion, but he cannot defend Maduro. He is bracing for a refugee crisis as violence spikes.

• The Right-Wing Bloc: Leaders in Argentina and El Salvador have praised the move, hoping it signals a new era of US engagement (and funding) for security in the region.

STATUS TRACKER: The Regime’s Inner Circle

Modeled after the famous 2003 Iraq “Deck of Cards”, the Pentagon has released the status of the High-Value Targets (HVTs).

The Nobel Prize Factor: Machado’s Path to Power

If the US military provided the force for Operation Absolute Resolve, María Corina Machado provided the legitimacy. The geopolitical landscape shifted irrevocably in October 2025, when the Norwegian Committee awarded Machado the Nobel Peace Prize, formally recognizing her as the democratic custodian of Venezuela.

The Strategic Pivot

Analysts now believe the Nobel win was the final nail in the diplomatic coffin for Nicolas Maduro. It stripped his regime of any lingering claim to sovereignty in the eyes of the West.

• The “Red Line”: Intelligence sources confirm that a credible assassination plot against Machado in December 2025—uncovered by the CIA—was a primary trigger for accelerating the US invasion timeline. The administration argued that allowing a Nobel Laureate to be liquidated by a “narco-state” was a non-negotiable red line.

• The Transition Architect: Machado is not merely a figurehead. The “Venezuela Land of Grace” plan, which she championed during her banned 2024 campaign, is effectively the blueprint the US is now using for the economic reconstruction.

The Current Situation

While currently in a secure, undisclosed location (believed to be under Swiss diplomatic protection in Caracas), Machado is expected to address the nation within 24 hours. Her challenge is monumental: she must bridge the gap between the US occupiers and a skeptical, polarized populace. To the US, she is an ally; to the Chavistas, she is a usurper; but to the millions who voted for her in the primaries, she remains the “Iron Lady”—the only figure with the moral authority to steer the country out of the abyss.

Final Words: The Trial of the Century and the Fog of Peace

As Nicolás Maduro sits in a federal holding cell, awaiting a trial that will undoubtedly be the media spectacle of the century, the US finds itself the owner of a broken nation.

The prosecution will be straightforward; the evidence of corruption and rights abuses is vast. But the defense will be political. Maduro’s lawyers will put US foreign policy on trial, exposing decades of interference, sanctions-induced suffering, and the murky world of intelligence ops.

More pressing is the reality on the streets of Caracas. “Operation Absolute Resolve” was successful in its military objective: the target was acquired. But the political objective, a stable, democratic, pro-American Venezuela, remains a distant mirage.

The US has broken the stalemate. Now, it must own the chaos. The coming months will determine if this was a liberation that restored a nation or a blunder that ignited a hemisphere.